Kalshi and Polymarket face growing international friction as rivals embrace gambling licenses
Kalshi and Polymarket have built their U.S. business model on CFTC classification as financial instruments rather than gambling products, but that framework offers no protection abroad, according to Sportico. Both companies have quietly withdrawn from major markets including China, India, Brazil, and Nigeria after facing regulatory pushback, even as their valuations reportedly climbed to $22 billion and $15 billion respectively. Competitors such as Matchbook and WagerWire are pursuing conventional gambling licenses in international markets, a path Kalshi and Polymarket have resisted to avoid undermining their financial-product argument in the U.S. Brazil removed Kalshi from operation in April, and Polymarket previously paid over $200,000 to settle with Ontario regulators for ignoring a local ban on prediction markets.
Most countries are looking at it as a gambling product
Why it matters
For service providers: Sports property rights holders and leagues with global audiences may find prediction market deal opportunities shifting toward licensed operators like Matchbook and WagerWire rather than the U.S.-centric CFTC-regulated platforms.
For brands: Sponsors and partners evaluating prediction market platforms need to understand that international reach for Kalshi and Polymarket is shrinking, while licensed competitors are gaining regulatory footholds in key regions.
For media: Broadcasters and media outlets covering sports betting internationally should note that the legal definition of prediction markets remains unsettled across jurisdictions, affecting which platforms can distribute and promote products in specific regions.
Read the full story at Sportico
Sources
- Sportico · Dan Bernstein: Kalshi and Polymarket’s U.S. Formula Could Hurt Them Abroad